2024 Japanese general election
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 465 seats in the House of Representatives 233 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 House of Representatives districts after 2022 redistricting | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
.png)
(cropped).jpg)
.png)
_(cropped).jpg)
Early general elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on 27 October 2024,[1] due to the early dissolution of the House of Representatives by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Voting will take place in all constituencies including proportional blocks, to elect Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan.
The elections will come just a month after Ishiba took the office of prime minister, after winning a heated contest in the party presidential election on 27 September following the resignation of Fumio Kishida as party leader due to his low approval rating amid the party-wide slush fund corruption scandal. The dissolution was eight days after the prime minister's inauguration and 26 days before the voting day, both the shortest since the end of the war.
Background
[edit]Kishida's resignation amid scandals and unpopularity
[edit]
Since the last general election in 2021, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was caught in a series of political crises, firstly the assassination of Shinzo Abe and anti-government protests in 2022, which led to the heightened scrutiny against the allegations surrounding the Unification Church and its link to his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The close relationship between the party and the church caused a drop in approval rating of the Kishida cabinet,[2][3] and led to the first reshuffle of his cabinet on 10 August and second reshuffle in September 2023 to remove cabinet members affiliated with the church.[4][5]
The Kishida government was further damaged by the party-wide slush fund corruption scandal in late 2023, which saw his approval rate drop to 23% as of 13 December 2023, the lowest such rating any prime minister had had since the LDP returned to power in 2012.[6] By 22 December, Kishida's approval rate had further declined to 17%.[7] On 18 January 2024, Kishida announced his intention to dissolve his Kōchikai faction as a result of the scandal.[8] The following day on 19 January, the Shisuikai and Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai factions announced their dissolutions.[9]
Kishida never recovered from the record-low approval ratings amid fallout from the scandal. His party lost all three seats up for election in the 2024 Japan by-elections, which were previously held by LDP or LDP-affiliated independents.[10] On 14 August 2024, Kishida announced that he would step down as party president, thereby not seeking re-election in September.[11]
Ishiba's call for early election
[edit]On 30 September 2024, former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, who won the nine-way heated contest in the party presidential election on 27 September, officially announced that he would call an early election to be held on 27 October, a year ahead of the expiration of the current term, to seek confidence from the people. After his inauguration as the prime minister on 1 October, the House of Representatives was dissolved on 9 October, with the election being announced on the 15th, and voting to take place on the 27th.[12]
The election is held after the replacement of major party leaders. The LDP elected Ishiba as new leader on 27 September, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on 23 September, Nobuyuki Baba took leadership of Nippon Ishin no Kai on 30 November 2021, Keiichi Ishii was elected leader of Komeito on 28 September, and Tomoko Tamura became leader of the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) on 18 January 2024. It is the first time since 2012 where all three of the leading parties in the Diet have had new leadership entering the next election.
The regular election to the House of Councillors, the other house of the national legislature which cannot be dissolved and is thus on fixed terms, will take place in 2025; but, also on 27 October, a by-election to the House of Councillors will be held in Iwate. On the prefectural level, the gubernatorial elections in Toyama and Okayama have already been set for 27 October.
This was the first dissolution of the Diet since 14 October 2021. The dissolution was eight days after the prime minister's inauguration and the voting and counting 26 days later that, both the shortest since the end of the war.[13]
Electoral system
[edit]The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting: 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party status (≥5 Diet members, or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election) are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present in the party list, such that if they lose their constituency election, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats; but, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10 % of the vote in his majoritarian constituency, he is also disqualified as a proportional candidate.
Reapportionment
[edit]The electoral districts will be readjusted according to the results of the 2020 Japan census. Originally, it was intended to be readjusted for the last election, but it was held in the existing constituencies not long after the census results came out.[14][15]
Newly created seats
[edit]Ten new districts and three new block seats will be created.
- Tokyo-26th
- Tokyo-27th
- Tokyo-28th
- Tokyo-29th
- Tokyo-30th
- Kanagawa-19th
- Kanagawa-20th
- Saitama-16th
- Aichi-16th
- Chiba-14th
- 18th Tokyo block seat
- 19th Tokyo block seat
- 23rd Minami-Kanto block seat
Seats to be eliminated
[edit]Ten districts and three block seats will be eliminated.
- Hiroshima-7th
- Miyagi-6th
- Niigata-6th
- Fukushima-5th
- Okayama-5th
- Shiga-4th
- Yamaguchi-4th
- Ehime-4th
- Nagasaki-4th
- Wakayama-3rd
- 13th Tohoku block seat
- 11th Hokurikushinetsu block seat
- 11th Chugoku block seat
Political parties
[edit]| Parties | Leader | Ideology | Seats | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last election | At dissolution[16] | |||||
| Liberal Democratic Party | Shigeru Ishiba | Conservatism Japanese nationalism |
259 / 465
|
258 / 465
|
Governing coalition | |
| Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan | Yoshihiko Noda | Liberalism | 96 / 465
|
98 / 465
|
Opposition | |
| Nippon Ishin no Kai | Nobuyuki Baba | Right-wing populism Economic liberalism |
41 / 465
|
44 / 465
| ||
| Komeito | Keiichi Ishii | Buddhist democracy | 32 / 465
|
32 / 465
|
Governing coalition | |
| Japanese Communist Party | Tomoko Tamura | Communism | 10 / 465
|
10 / 465
|
Opposition | |
| Democratic Party For the People | Yuichiro Tamaki | Conservatism | 11 / 465
|
7 / 465
| ||
| Reiwa Shinsengumi | Tarō Yamamoto | Progressivism Left-wing populism |
3 / 465
|
3 / 465
| ||
| Social Democratic Party | Mizuho Fukushima | Social democracy | 1 / 465
|
1 / 465
| ||
| Sanseitō | Sohei Kamiya | Right-wing populism Ultraconservatism |
0 / 465
|
1 / 465
| ||
| Nonpartisan | N/A | N/A | 12 / 465
|
11 / 465
| ||
Pre-election developments
[edit]| Single-member districts candidates |
|---|
 
|
| Reference |
As of 15 October, there were 314 women competing in the election, which exceeded the number recorded in the 2009 election. The proportion of women in the electoral race also increased from 5.7% in 2021 to 23.4%. There were also 136 candidates who were related to previous officeholders, making up 10% of all candidates. The the LDP accounted for 97 of them, equivalent to 28.4% of all its candidates, while the CDP had 27 candidates, equivalent to 11.4% of its list.[17]
Governing coalition
[edit]On 6 October, Shigeru Ishiba indicated that he would not endorse any lawmakers who have been suspended from party membership over the LDP slush fund scandal. Ishiba also indicated that those who had involved scandal, whether they had been sanctioned or not, would not also be banned from running double candidacy in single-seat districts and proportional representation blocs, which was expected to affect at least 30 such candidates.[18] He explained that it was a response to the "criticism and anger" of the public which were stronger than they expected.[19]
On 9 October, the LDP officially pulled its endorsement of the following 12 members:[20]
Party membership suspended:
- Hakubun Shimomura, former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
- Yasutoshi Nishimura, former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry
- Tsuyoshi Takagi, former Chairman of the LDP Diet Affairs Committee
Suspended from party positions for one year which still in effect:
- Kōichi Hagiuda, former Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council
- Katsuei Hirasawa, former Minister of Reconstruction
- Hiromi Mitsubayashi, former Vice Minister of the Cabinet Office
Suspended from party positions for six months which now expired:
- Ichiro Kanke, former Deputy Minister of Reconstruction (withdrew his candidacy on 12 October)[21]
- Kazuyuki Nakane, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs
- Kiyoshi Odawara, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs
Received disciplinary reprimand:
- Kenichi Hosoda, former Deputy Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry
No punishment received:
- Takao Ochi, former Deputy Minister of Cabinet Office
- Hirofumi Imamura, former member of the House of Representatives
On 11 October, three members who were involved in the scandal, all from the former Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai faction, including former Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Mio Sugita, who was suspended from party positions for six months, former Vice-Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Asako Omi, who was given a reprimand, and former Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Kentaro Uesugi, who did not receive any disciplinary action, would withdraw their candidacies in the election.[22]
Keiichi Ishii, leader of the Komeito which was LDP's junior coalition partner, said on 8 October that the party would not recommend LDP lawmakers who were not officially endorsed in the election,[23] but decided to recommend Nishimura and Mitsubayashi on 9 October despite LDP decision based on the wishes of the party's local organizations.[24]
Opposition parties
[edit]| Party | Before election | Const. | PR | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDP | 258 | 266 | 76 | 342 | |
| CDP | 98 | 207 | 30 | 237 | |
| Ishin | 44 | 163 | 1 | 164 | |
| Komei | 32 | 11 | 39 | 50 | |
| JCP | 10 | 213 | 23 | 236 | |
| DPFP | 7 | 41 | 1 | 42 | |
| Reiwa | 3 | 19 | 16 | 35 | |
| SDP | 1 | 10 | 7 | 17 | |
| Sansei | 1 | 85 | 10 | 95 | |
| NHK | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| Hoshu | 0 | 4 | 26 | 30 | |
| CES | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ind/others | 11 | 88 | – | 88 | |
| Total | 465 | 1,113 | 231 | 1,344 | |
After holding talks with the right-leaning Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Nobuyuki Baba and Democratic Party for the People (DPTP) leader Yuichiro Tamaki on 3 October in an attempt to unifying opposition candidates for constituencies to prevent the LDP and its Komeito ally from securing a majority, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda on 4 October switched his stance to aiming to form a government on its own by filling more candidates in the proportional representation blocks.[26][27]
The CDP and the left-wing pacifist JCP also had differences over their stances on the security-related laws, as Noda aimed at winning over "moderate conservatives" critical of the LDP government, by formulating more middle-of-the-road foreign policy and security measures including the continuation of the laws, while the JCP, which was fielding as many as 216 candidates in the single-seat constituencies, advocated for the repeal of the laws under the banner of the opposition coalition during the 2016 House of Councillors election.[28]
The Nikkei on 11 October reported that the opposition could only manage to have 55 constituencies where they would be an one-on-one battle with the LDP, under 20% of the 289 single-seat constituencies as compared to the 140 constituencies in the previous election in 2021. There would be 81 constituencies where CDP, Ishin and other parties compete, and 67 where CDP competes with opposition parties other than Ishin.[29]
On 3 October, Seiji Maehara, leader of the Free Education For All which commanded four seats in the Diet, announced that his party would join the Nippon Ishin no Kai after months of talks for merger and would run as Ishin-endorsed candidates in the upcoming election. However, House of Representatives member Atsushi Suzuki, who would run in the Kanagawa 18th district, did not join the coalition due to its competition with a Ishin candidate in the same constituency. On the same day he announced that he would run as an official candidate for the Sanseitō party.[30]
Debates
[edit]| Date | Host | Format | Venue |
| ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDP | CDP | Ishin | Komei | JCP | DPFP | Reiwa | SDP | Sansei | ||||||||
| 12 October | Japan National Press Club | Debate | Japan National Press Club, Tokyo[31] | P Ishiba |
P Noda |
P Baba |
P Ishii |
P Tamura |
P Tamaki |
P Yamamoto |
NI | NI | ||||
| 13 October | NHK (Nichiyō Tōron) | Debate | NHK Broadcasting Center, Tokyo[32] | P Ishiba |
P Noda |
P Baba |
P Ishii |
P Tamura |
P Tamaki |
P Yamamoto |
P Fukushima |
P Kamiya | ||||
Opinion polls
[edit]
Results
[edit]| Party | +/– | |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democratic Party | – | |
| Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan | – | |
| Nippon Ishin no Kai | – | |
| Komeito | – | |
| Japanese Communist Party | – | |
| Democratic Party For the People | – | |
| Reiwa Shinsengumi | – | |
| Social Democratic Party | – | |
| Sanseitō | – | |
| NHK Party | – | |
| Conservative Party of Japan | – | |
| Consideration the Euthanasia System | – | |
| Independents | – | |
| Total | 0 | |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Light grey denotes disowned former LDP MPs running independently due to being implicated in the lush fund scandal.
References
[edit]- ^ "自民･石破総裁 あす衆院解散の意向を表明へ 総選挙１０月１５日公示、２７日投開票で最終調整｜FNNプライムオンライン". FNNプライムオンライン. 2024-09-29. Retrieved 2024-09-29.
- ^ "岸田内閣支持率５７％、旧統一教会との関係「説明果たしてない」８７％ ... 読売世論調査", Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese), 8 August 2022, archived from the original on 8 August 2022, retrieved 9 August 2022
- ^ 岸田内閣「支持」46％ 内閣発足後最低に 「不支持」28％ (in Japanese), NHK, 8 August 2022, archived from the original on 9 August 2022, retrieved 9 August 2022
- ^ "岸田首相、内閣改造と自民党役員人事を正式表明 10日にも実施へ", Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese), 6 August 2022, archived from the original on 8 August 2022, retrieved 9 August 2022
- ^ Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Lies, Elaine (9 August 2022), "Japan PM says new cabinet members must 'review' ties with Unification Church", Reuters, retrieved 9 August 2022
- ^ Yamaguchi, Mari (10 August 2022). "Japan PM purges Cabinet after support falls over church ties". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 26 August 2022. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
- ^ Mao, Frances (22 December 2023). "Japan: Corruption scandal threatens PM Kishida's government". BBC News. Archived from the original on 29 December 2023. Retrieved 11 January 2024.
- ^ "岸田派、政治団体を解散へ". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 2024-01-21. Retrieved 2024-01-18.
- ^ "Biggest faction in Japan's ruling party decides to disband". Kyodo News. 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
- ^ "Japan's leader denies he will step down over election defeat". Politico. Archived from the original on 3 May 2024. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
- ^ Lee, Michelle Ye Hee; Inuma, Julia Mio (2024-08-14). "Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says he will step down next month". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2024-08-14.
- ^ "【放送中】衆議院解散 事実上の選挙戦に 15日公示 27日投開票". NHK. 2024-10-09.
- ^ "衆院解散とは 首相就任から8日後は戦後最短". 日本経済新聞. 2024-10-10.
- ^ "小選挙区「10増10減」へ 国勢調査受け、次々回から" [Single-seat constituencies to increase by 10, decrease by 10]. The Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 25 June 2021. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
- ^ "衆院小選挙区「１０増１０減」 アダムズ方式で格差是正―政府、来年にも法案提出" [House of Representatives single-seat constituency "10 increase, 10 decrease" Adams method to correct disparities-government to submit bill next year]. Jiji Press (in Japanese). 25 June 2021. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
- ^ "【速報中】衆議院解散 事実上の選挙戦に 15日公示 27日投開票". NHK. 2024-10-09.
- ^ "Record 314 women run in Japan's general election". Kyodo News. 2024-10-16.
- ^ "石破首相 不記載で「党員資格停止」の議員など非公認の方針". NHK. 2024-10-06.
- ^ "石破首相 "非公認は選挙で勝利する観点" 野党側は批判強める". NHK. 2024-10-08.
- ^ "【一覧】自民 不記載議員12人を衆院選で非公認 執行部に不服も". NHK. 2024-10-09.
- ^ "菅家元復興副大臣 衆議院選挙に立候補せず 不記載で自民非公認". NHK. 2024-10-12.
- ^ "自民 杉田水脈氏ら不記載の旧安倍派・比例3人が公認辞退". NHK. 2024-10-11.
- ^ "衆院選 公明 石井代表 非公認の自民議員は推薦せず". NHK. 2024-10-08.
- ^ "公明 自民非公認の2人を推薦 "地方組織の意向踏まえ推薦も"". NHK. 2024-10-09.
- ^ "衆議院選挙公示 小選挙区・比例 計1344人が立候補 27日投開票". NHK. 2024-10-15.
- ^ "CDP Calls for Unifying Opposition Candidates in Lower House Poll". Jiji Press. 2024-10-03.
- ^ "立民 野田代表 衆院選で"比例代表含め単独での政権目指す"". NHK. 2024-10-04.
- ^ "立民・野田氏、野党共闘で共産と溝 政権担当能力強調も 「隠れ立憲共産」火種に". 産経新聞. 2024-10-10.
- ^ "立民、選挙区調整進まず 与野党一騎打ちは2割どまり". 日本経済新聞. 2024-10-11.
- ^ "教育・前原代表ら、維新と合流へ 次期衆院選で公認". 日本経済新聞. 2024-10-03.
- ^ "衆院選、党首討論ライブ 日経記者が同時解説 あす午後2時から生配信". 日本経済新聞. 2024-10-11.
- ^ "【日曜討論】与野党9党党首 政治とカネの問題で意見交換". NHK. 2024-10-13.
