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2024 Moldovan presidential election

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2024 Moldovan presidential election
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Alexandr Stoianoglo - interview for Prosecutor's Office, nov 2019.jpg
Candidate Maia Sandu Alexandr Stoianoglo Renato Usatîi
Party PAS PSRM PN
 
Tarlev.jpg
Ирина Влах 03 (29-07-2021).jpg
Candidate Vasile Tarlev Irina Vlah Ion Chicu
Party PVM Independent PDCM
Incumbent President

Maia Sandu


Politics of Moldova

Government of Moldova

Constitution
Parliament
Judiciary
Executive
Administrative divisions
Elections
Foreign relations
flag Moldova portal

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Moldova on 20 October 2024.[1][2]

In addition, a referendum on whether Moldova should join the EU is to be held on the same day as the presidential election.[3]

Electoral system

[edit]

Date

[edit]

On 17 April 2024, Parliament speaker Igor Grosu announced the holding of the presidential election in conjunction with the referendum on joining the European Union on 20 October.[1] The decision was approved by the Parliament of Moldova on 16 May.[4][5]

Eligibility requirements

[edit]

The Constitution of Moldova (Article 78, Clause 2) defines four conditions that a presidential candidate must satisfy: Moldovan citizenship, at least 40 years of age, residence in Moldova for at least 10 years, and ability to speak the state language. Article 80 of the Constitution establishes a term limit: one individual cannot serve more than 2 terms in a row.[6]

Procedure

[edit]

Candidates can be nominated by a political party, an electoral alliance, or run as independents. They have to collect at least 15,000 voter signatures in their support from at least half of Moldova's level 2 administrative territorial units with at least 600 signatures in each of them.[7] The election results can be considered valid only if the turnout is above or equal to 33%. The candidate who receives an absolute majority of the votes is elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, a second round between the top 2 candidates is held two weeks after the first round. The candidate with the largest number of votes in the second round then becomes president.[8]

Security concerns

[edit]

Moldovan authorities have accused Russian-trained groups of plotting to destabilise the election. In September 2024, incidents of vandalism on the offices of the Supreme Court of Justice of Moldova and on the public broadcaster Teleradio-Moldova were attributed to the said groups.[9] In October 2024, authorities announced the discovery of a plot by Ilan Shor involving $15 million in funds from Russia that were distributed to around 130,000 people in order to bribe voters into selecting anti-Western decisions and spread disinformation against the European Union on social media, following raids on 26 locations nationwide.[10][11] Russia denied the accusations.[12]

Candidates

[edit]
Name Born Campaign Experience Party Status

Maia Sandu 		24 May 1972 (52)
Risipeni, Fălești District
(website) 		President of Moldova (2020–present)
Prime Minister of Moldova (2019)
Minister of Education (2012–2015) 		Party of Action and Solidarity Registered[13]

Alexandr Stoianoglo 		3 June 1967 (57)

Comrat

Prosecutor General of Moldova (2019–2021)

Vice President of the Parliament (2009–2010)

Party of Socialists Registered[14]

Renato Usatîi 		4 November 1978 (45)
Fălești
(website) 		Mayor of Bălți (2015–2018, 2019–2021) Our Party Registered[15]

Vasile Tarlev 		9 October 1963 (61)

Bașcalia, Basarabeasca District

Prime Minister of Moldova (2001–2008) Future of Moldova Party
endorsed by Party of Communists 		Registered[16]

Irina Vlah 		26 February 1974 (50)

Comrat


(website) 		Governor of Gagauzia (2015–2023) Independent Registered[17]

Ion Chicu 		28 February 1972 (52)

Pîrjolteni, Călărași District

Prime Minister of Moldova (2019–2020)

Minister of Finance (2018–2019)

Party of Development and Consolidation of Moldova Registered[18]

Andrei Năstase 		6 August 1975 (49)

Mîndrești, Telenești District


(website) 		Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Internal Affairs (2019) Independent Registered[19]

Octavian Țîcu

21 August 1972 (52)

Costuleni, Ungheni District

Member of the Moldovan Parliament (2019–2021)

Minister of Youth and Sport (2013)

Together Bloc Registered[20]
Victoria Furtună 24 February 1981 (43)

Hîncești


(website) 		Prosecutor Independent Registered[21]

Tudor Ulianovschi 		25 May 1983 (41)

Florești


(website) 		Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration (2018–2019)

Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein; Permanent Representative to the United Nations (2016–2018)

Independent Registered[22]

Natalia Morari 		12 January 1984 (40)

Hîncești


(website) 		Journalist

Host of Morari.live

Independent Registered[23]

Withdrew

[edit]

Candidacies rejected by the CEC

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

As of August 2024, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous seven months, but they rejected and announced they won't run as candidate:

Opinion polls

[edit]

Registered candidates

[edit]
Fieldwork
date 		Polling firm/
Commissioner 		Sample size Undecided/
Abstention/
None/
Other
Maia Sandu Alexandr Stoianoglo Renato Usatîi Vasile Tarlev Irina Vlah Ion Chicu Andrei Năstase Octavian Țîcu Victoria Furtună Tudor Ulianovschi Natalia Morari
PAS PSRM PN PVM Independent PDCM Independent BÎ Independent Independent Independent
13–22 Sep 2024 ASPEN–APEC–WatchDog[28] 1,021 36.1% 10.1% 7.5% 1.8% 4.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 34.6%
13–18 Sep 2024 iData[29] 1,021 26.8% 11.2% 12.7% 6.3% 6.1% 4.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 3.5% 1.8% 25.8%
30 Aug–2 Sep 2024 Intellect Group[30] 596 24.5% 12.0% 6.2% 4.7% 5.0% 1.5% 3.5% – – – 2.0% 40.6%
19–25 Aug 2024 iData[31] 1,004 27.5% 11.4% 11.6% 5.8% 3.3% 2.8% 1.2% – – – – 36.4%
20–23 Aug 2024 CBS Research–WatchDog[32] 1,011 35.5% 9.9% 6.8% 1.8% 5.8% 3.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 34.0%
8–21 Jul 2024 IMAS[33] 1,093 33.7% 11.5% 10.8% 1.2% 8.9% 6.0% 1.4% 0.9% – 0.1% 1.1% 24.4%

Hypothetical candidates

[edit]
Fieldwork
date 		Polling firm/
Commissioner 		Sample size Other None/
Undecided/
Abstention
Maia Sandu Igor Dodon Alexandr Stoianoglo Ion Ceban Ilan Shor Vladimir Voronin Ion Chicu Marina Tauber Renato Usatîi Irina Vlah
PAS PSRM PSRM MAN ȘOR PCRM PDCM ȘOR PN Independent
28 Jun–18 Jul 2024 CBS-AXA-IPRE 1,119 30.3% 13.0% 1.0% 5.4% 2.5% 3.4% 3.2% – 6.5% 5.6% 6.3% 23%
23 May–13 Jun 2024 IRI[34] 1,225 34% 18% – 4% 4% – 5% – 5% 4% 3% 24%
22–27 May 2024 iData[35] 1,022 30.4% 14.3% – 3.0% – 2.5% 6.1% – 3.9% 1.6% 6.1% 32.1%
2–19 May 2024 IMAS[36] 1,088 35.2% 16.4% – 5.9% – 5.3% 5.7% – 4.7% 4.1% 7.8% 14.9%
6–13 Apr 2024 CBS-AXA–WatchDog[37] 1,008 35.1% 15.8% – 5.4% 1.7% 4.6% 5.6% – 3.9% 4.5% 5.3% 18.0%
18–24 Mar 2024 iData[38] 1,131 27.9% 13.3% – 4.4% – 2.6% 5.7% – 3.0% 4.3% 6.5% 32.3%
27 Jan–22 Feb 2024 IRI[39] 1,247 30% 24% – 6% 4% – 5% – 4% 4% 1% 22%
7–12 Feb 2024 CBS Research[40] 1,104 29.8% 14.8% – 4.5% 8.5% 1.6% 5.0% – 4.4% 4.8% 4.1% 22.4%
26–30 Jan 2024 iData[41] 1,011 24.1% 29.7% 46.2%
29 Nov–16 Dec 2023 IMAS[42] 954 30.1% 24.0% – 8.1% – 2.7% 6.1% – 4.1% 5.6% 6.0% 13.3%
2–24 Sep 2023 IMAS[43] 822 27.8% 16.0% – 6.0% – 4.3% 5.9% – 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% 24.4%
9–23 Aug 2023 CBS-AXA–IPP[44] 1,215 29.4% 18.1% – 5.6% 3.2% 1.5% 4.1% – 5.1% – 3.0% 30.1%
13–28 Jun 2023 CBS-AXA–IPRE[45] 1,120 32.6% 17.8% – 5.3% 3.3% 4.3% 2.9% 3.0% 4.3% – 1.5% 24.0%
10–19 Jun 2023 CBS-AXA–WatchDog[46] 1,121 37.9% 14.2% – 6.2% 2.5% 4.7% 5.0% 3.5% 4.7% – 3.0% 18.3%
2–19 May 2023 IMAS[47] 1,112 28.5% 23.9% – 8.3% – 3.7% 7.2% 2.7% 3.8% – 4.1% 18.0%
27 Apr–8 May 2023 iData[48] 1,049 30.4% 18.3% – 6.7% 12.2% – 5.9% – 4.5% 2.8% 1.5% 17.7%
4–13 Apr 2023 CBS-AXA–WatchDog[49] 1,015 38.3% 18.4% – 6.2% 2.5% 3.2% 4.9% 2.2% 3.2% – 1.9% 19.2%
15–26 Mar 2023 iData[50] 1,065 29.4% 17.6% – 7.2% 9.2% 0.9% 5.4% – 1.7% 3.1% 1.7% 23.9%
24 Feb–3 Mar 2023 CBS-AXA–WatchDog[51] 1,000 31.8% 17.8% – 4.7% 2.0% 3.5% 3.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 28.8%
6–23 Feb 2023 IMAS[52] 1,100 25.2% 20.4% – 8.2% – 4.9% 5.4% 4.3% 3.4% – 3.8% 24.6%
17–26 Jan 2023 CBS-AXA–WatchDog[53] 1,001 28.2% 17.6% – 8.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 2.4% 3.5% 1.8% 4.0% 21.8%
15–26 Dec 2022 iData[54] 1,006 27.2% 24.1% – 10.0% 13.4% 0.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 3.0% 16.0%
10–29 Nov 2022 IMAS[55] 1,100 26.9% 19.6% – 8.8% – 4.0% 7.1% 2.8% 2.2% – 7.3% 21.3%
29 Oct–10 Nov 2022 CBS Research/IPP[56] 1,134 27.3% 15.4% – 7.1% 9.1% 4.3% – – 2.9% – 3.5% 30.5%
29 Sep–11 Oct 2022 IDIS–CBS Research–IPRI[57] 1,066 34.1% 19.1% – 7.1% 6.3% 5.2% 2.5% – 3.3% 1.2% 3.2% 18.1%
6–18 Jul 2022 IMAS[58] 1,007 24.4% 25.4% – 9.2% – 7.1% 5.2% 3.6% 2.8% – c. 5.4% 16.0%

Second round

[edit]
Sandu vs. Dodon
Fieldwork
date 		Polling firm/
Commissioner 		Sample size None/
Undecided/
Abstention
Maia Sandu Igor Dodon
Independent PSRM
2–19 May 2024 IMAS[36] 1,088 41.3% 43.5% 15.3%
6–13 Apr 2024 CBS-AXA–WatchDog 1,008 42.2% 34.9% 22.9%
7–12 Feb 2024 CBS Research[40] 1,104 40.2% 39.3% 20.4%
29 Nov–16 Dec 2023 IMAS[42] 954 35% 46% 19%
2–19 May 2023 IMAS[59] 1,112 38% 45% 17%
Sandu vs. Ceban
Fieldwork
date 		Polling firm/
Commissioner 		Sample size None/
Undecided/
Abstention
Maia Sandu Ion Ceban
Independent MAN
6–13 Apr 2024 CBS-AXA–WatchDog 1,008 40.2% 32.3% 27.4%
7–12 Feb 2024 CBS Research[40] 1,104 39.5% 35% 25.8%
29 Nov–16 Dec 2023 IMAS[42] 954 34% 42% 24%
Sandu vs. Usatîi
Fieldwork
date 		Polling firm/
Commissioner 		Sample size None/
Undecided/
Abstention
Maia Sandu Renato Usatîi
Independent PN
13–18 Sep 2024 iData[29] 1,021 35.1% 32.2% 32.7%
29 Nov–16 Dec 2023 IMAS[42] 954 37% 30% 33%
Sandu vs. Vlah
Fieldwork
date 		Polling firm/
Commissioner 		Sample size None/
Undecided/
Abstention
Maia Sandu Irina Vlah
Independent Independent
6–13 Apr 2024 CBS-AXA–WatchDog 1,008 43.2% 28.3% 28.5%
7–12 Feb 2024 CBS Research[40] 1,104 42.2% 33% 24.7%
29 Nov–16 Dec 2023 IMAS[42] 954 38% 35% 27%

Results

[edit]
CandidateParty
Maia SanduPAS
Alexandr StoianogloPSRM
Renato UsatîiOur Party
Vasile TarlevFuture of Moldova Party
Irina VlahIndependent
Ion ChicuParty of Development and Consolidation
Tudor UlianovschiIndependent
Natalia MorariIndependent
Andrei NăstaseIndependent
Octavian ȚîcuTogether Bloc
Victoria FurtunăIndependent
Total
Source: Central Electoral Commission

References

[edit]
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  59. ^ "Maia Sandu, umăr la umăr cu pro-rusul Igor Dodon, dacă duminică ar fi alegeri în Republica Moldova / Dodon ar câștiga turul II - sondaj IMAS" (in Romanian). 2023-05-23. Retrieved 2023-06-20.
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