2024 Uruguayan general election
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Presidential election | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Uruguay portal |
General elections will be held in Uruguay on 27 October 2024.[1][2] If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on Sunday 24 November 2024.
Background
[edit]Incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou, who won the 2019 elections, cannot run again as the constitution bars a president from immediate re-election. As a result, the governing National Party has to nominate a new candidate.
Lacalle Pou took office in 2020, heading the Multicolor Coalition, a big tent political alliance formed after October 2019 first round that remains active in the 2024 elections under the name Republican Coalition. His cabinet is composed of leaders from the member parties of the coalition, which holds a majority in both chambers of Parliament, allowing it to push through various legislative initiatives despite the Broad Front opposition.
During the period from 2020 to 2024, the government of Luis Lacalle Pou has faced various controversies and challenges. These have included issues related to the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policies, corruption scandals and social issues such as education reform and security.
Electoral system
[edit]Voting in Uruguay is compulsory and extends to all citizens aged 18 and over. Those who cannot vote without a valid reason will face a fine or be sanctioned with the inability to carry out various public procedures. According to the Constitution of Uruguay, voting is not only a right of the citizen but above all, it is a duty as a citizen, as well as an obligation.
The President of Uruguay is elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held between the two most-voted candidates if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, becomes president of the Senate, with his vote being determinant in case of tie.[3] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives are elected by proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the 19 departments. Seats are allocated using the highest averages method.[4]
The elections are held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three seats of Presidency, Senate and Chamber of Representatives.
Parties and candidates
[edit]Presidential primaries were held on 30 June 2024 to nominate the presidential candidate for every political party. Fourteen political parties surpassed the minimum of 500 valid votes in the internal elections required by the Electoral Court to participate in the general elections. Of these fourteen, only eleven ultimately participated in these elections (the same number of parties as in the previous elections of 2019, but with different parties).
Below are the parties that surpassed the 2024 primary elections, listed by their results in the 2019 general elections.
Summary
[edit]Party | Ideology | 2019 result | Status | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First round votes (%) | Chamber | Senate | Run-off votes (%) | ||||
National Party Partido Nacional |
Conservatism Christian democracy |
29.70% | 30 / 99
|
10 / 30
|
50.79% | Government | |
Broad Front Frente Amplio |
Social democracy Democratic socialism |
40.49% | 42 / 99
|
13 / 30
|
49.21% | Opposition | |
Colorado Party Partido Colorado |
Liberalism | 12.80% | 13 / 99
|
4 / 30
|
Did not advance | Government | |
Open Cabildo Cabildo Abierto |
Right-wing populism National conservatism |
11.46% | 11 / 99
|
3 / 30
|
Did not advance | Government | |
Intransigent Radical Ecologist Party Partido Ecologista Radical Intransigente |
Green liberalism | 1.43% | 1 / 99
|
0 / 30
|
Did not advance | Opposition | |
Independent Party Partido Independiente |
Christian humanism Christian democracy |
1.01% | 1 / 99
|
0 / 30
|
Did not advance | Government | |
Popular Assembly (PU-WF) Asamblea Popular (UP-FT) |
Marxism Trotskyism |
0.90% | 0 / 99
|
0 / 30
|
Did not advance | Extra-parliamentary | |
Green Animalist Party Partido Verde Animalista |
Green politics | 0.83% | 0 / 99
|
0 / 30
|
Did not advance | Extra-parliamentary | |
Sovereign Identity Identidad Soberana |
Anti-Globalism Eco-nationalism |
Did not contest | |||||
Environmental Constitutional Party Partido Constitucional Ambientalista |
Constitutionalism Eco-nationalism |
Did not contest | |||||
For Necessary Changes Por los Cambios Necesarios |
Did not contest | ||||||
Republican Advance Party Partido Avanzar Republicano |
Liberalism | Did not contest | |||||
Enough is Enough Party Partido Basta Ya |
Did not contest | ||||||
Republican Coalition Coalición Republicana |
Big tent | Did not contest |
Candidates in first round
[edit]Parties with parliamentary representation
[edit]Party | Presidential candidate | Vice Presidential candidate | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name Birth date and place |
Prior experience | Party faction | Name | Prior experience | Party faction | ||||
National Party | Álvaro Delgado b. 1969 (age 55)
Montevideo |
Veterinarian Secretary of the Presidency (2020–2023) See more
|
(Aire Fresco) | Valeria Ripoll |
Unionist General Secretary of ADEOM (2017–2023) |
(D Centro) | |||
Broad Front | Yamandú Orsi b. 1967 (age 57)
Santa Rosa, Canelones |
Former teacher Intendant of the Canelones Department (2015–2024) See more
|
(MPP) | Carolina Cosse | Engineer Intendant of Montevideo (2020–present) See more
|
(La Amplia) | |||
Colorado Party Factions
|
Andrés Ojeda b. 1984 (age 40)
Montevideo |
Criminal defense lawyer See more
|
(Lista 25) | Robert Silva |
Lawyer President of ANEP (2020–2023) See more
|
(Ciudadanos) | |||
Open Cabildo | Guido Manini Ríos b. 1958 (age 65)
Montevideo |
Retired general officer Senator of the Republic (2020–present) See more
|
Lorena Quintana | Family doctor Director of the SATP program of the MSP (2023–present) See more
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|||||
Intransigent Radical Ecologist Party Factions
|
César Vega b. 1962 (age 61)
Paysandú |
Agronomist National Representative for Montevideo (2020-present) |
(Ecologistas) | Sergio Billiris |
N/A N/A |
(Ecologistas) | |||
Independent Party Factions
|
Pablo Mieres b. 1959 (age 65)
Montevideo |
Lawyer Minister of Labour and Social Welfare (2020–2024) See more
|
(Lista 909) | Mónica Bottero |
Journalist Director of the National Institute for Women of the MIDES (2020–present) See more
|
(Crecer) |
Parties without parliamentary representation
[edit]Party | Presidential candidate | Vice Presidential candidate | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name Birth date and place |
Prior experience | Party faction | Name (Party sector) |
Prior experience | Party faction | ||||
Popular Assembly Factions
|
Gonzalo Martínez b. 1989 (age 34)
Montevideo |
Student Substitute National Representative for Montevideo (2015–2020) |
(March 26 Movement) | Andrea Revuelta |
Teacher Union member of the ADES |
(Workers' Party) | |||
Sovereign Identity Factions
|
Gustavo Salle b. 1958 (age 66)
Montevideo |
Lawyer 2019 presidential candidate under the Green Animalist Party |
(Nosotros mismos) | María Canoniero (N/A) |
N/A | (Nosotros mismos) | |||
Environmental Constitutional Party Factions
|
Eduardo Lust b. 1959 (age 64)
Paysandú |
Constitutional Law professor Senator of the Republic (2020–present) |
(Lista 1187) | Luján Criado | N/A N/A |
(Lista 1187) | |||
For Necessary Changes Factions
|
Guillermo Franchi b. na |
N/A | (Lista 2018) | Virginia Vaz (N/A) |
Architect 2021 candidate for Director of the BPS representing retirees |
(Lista 2018) | |||
Republican Advance Party Factions
|
Martín Pérez Banchero b. 1976 (age 48)
Colonia |
Lawyer National Director of Tourism at the Ministry of Tourism (2020–2021) |
(Avanzar) | Daniel Isi | N/A N/A |
(Avanzar) |
Disqualified before the first round
[edit]Parties that did not manage to gather the minimum required of 251 delegates in their National Convention before August 31 to approve their presidential ticket.
Party | Presidential candidate | Vice Presidential candidate | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name Birth date and place |
Prior experience | Party faction | Name (Party sector) |
Prior experience | Party faction | ||||
Green Animalist Party Factions
|
Rita Rodríguez b. na na
|
N/A N/A |
(Desafío) | Agustín Helal | N/A N/A |
(Desafío) |
Withdrew after the primaries
[edit]Defeated in the primary elections
[edit]Campaign slogans
[edit]Candidate | Party | Original slogan English translation |
Ref | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yamandú Orsi | Broad Front | El frente es amplio "The front is broad" |
[1] | |
Álvaro Delgado | National Party | Reelegí un buen gobierno "Re-elect a good government" |
||
Andrés Ojeda | Colorado Party | El nuevo presidente "The new president" |
[2] | |
Guido Manini Ríos | Open Cabildo | A lo seguro "Playing safe" |
||
Pablo Mieres | Independent Party | De acá, para arriba "From here, upwards" |
||
Gonzalo Martínez | Popular Assembly | Sumate a construir la izquierda que lucha "Join us in building the left that fights" |
||
Gustavo Salle | Identidad Soberana | Trinchera de los valores "Bastion of values" |
||
Eduardo Lust | Constitutional Environmentalist Party | Tu voz al parlamento "Your voice in Parliament" |
||
Martín Pérez Banchero | Partido Avanzar Republicano | Para avanzar hay que cambiar "To move forward, we must change" |
Opinion polls
[edit]Party polling
[edit]Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | FA | PN | PC | CA | PERI | PG | PI | Others | Und. | Blank/Abs. | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UPC[5] | 27–30 Sep 2024 | 500 | 46% | 24% | 13% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 3% | 11% | 22% | |
Cifra[6] | 13–26 Sep 2024 | 1,001 | 44% | 24% | 14% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 2%[a] | 13% | 20% | |
Equipos Consultores[7] | 11–23 Sep 2024 | 2,000 | 43% | 21% | 15% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 2%[b] | 10% | 5% | 22% |
MPC Consultores[8] | 10–15 Sep 2024 | 1,260 | 34% | 19% | 15% | 5% | 1% | — | 1% | 3%[c] | 19% | 3% | 15% |
Factum[9] | 31 Aug–9 Sep 2024 | 900 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 4% | — | — | 3% | 3% | — | 4% | 17% |
UPC[10] | 29 Aug–1 Sep 2024 | 500 | 47% | 24% | 13% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 23% |
Equipos Consultores[11] | 14 Aug–1 Sep 2024 | 2,000 | 41% | 22% | 13% | 3% | 1% | — | — | 2%[a] | 13% | 3% | 19% |
Cifra[12] | 16–27 Aug 2024 | 1,003 | 44% | 28% | 11% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 2%[a] | 11% | 16% | |
Opción Consultores[13] | 15–27 Aug 2024 | 1,200 | 43% | 23% | 14% | 4% | 1% | — | 1% | 2%[a] | 13% | 20% | |
MPC Consultores[14] | 1–10 Aug 2024 | 1,160 | 33% | 20% | 14% | 7% | — | — | — | 4% | 19% | 3% | 13% |
Factum[15] | 28 Jul–8 Aug 2024 | 900 | 44% | 26% | 15% | 5% | 1% | — | 3% | 3%[b] | — | 3% | 18% |
Nómade[16] | 29 Jul–4 Aug 2024 | 1,730 | 46.1% | 25.3% | 9.7% | 1.3% | — | — | — | 2.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 20.8% |
Equipos Consultores[17] | 17–30 Jul 2024 | 1,207 | 43% | 22% | 11% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 2%[a] | 15% | 3% | 21% |
Cifra[18] | 17–28 Jul 2024 | 1,003 | 45% | 27% | 9% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 2%[a] | 13% | 18% | |
Opción Consultores[19] | 15–25 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 42% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 1% | — | 2% | 2%[a] | 16% | 22% | |
MPC Consultores[20] | 10–14 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 33% | 23% | 9% | 7% | — | — | — | 3% | 22% | 3% | 10% |
UPC[21] | 5–9 Jul 2024 | 500 | 48% | 24% | 11% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 24% |
Presidential primaries | 30 Jun 2024 | – | 42.4% | 33.4% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | — | 0.3% | 1.4% | — | 0.6% | 9.0% |
Nómade[22] | 13–22 Jun 2024 | 1,124 | 43.6% | 31.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | — | — | — | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 12.1% |
Equipos Consultores[23] | 29 May–13 Jun 2024 | 1,413 | 44% | 26% | 9% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 18% |
Factum[24] | 1–11 Jun 2024 | 900 | 43% | 30% | 12% | 5% | — | — | 3% | 3%[d] | — | 4% | 13% |
Opción Consultores[25] | 15–31 May 2024 | 1,420 | 42% | 27% | 7% | 4% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 10% | 6% | 15% |
Cifra[26] | 16–29 May 2024 | 1,501 | 47% | 32% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 10% | 15% | ||
UPC[27] | 24–28 May 2024 | 500 | 47% | 29% | 7% | 1% | 1% | — | — | 3% | 6% | 6% | 18% |
MPC Consultores[28] | 20–25 May 2024 | 900 | 33% | 23% | 8% | 8% | 1% | — | 1% | 3%[c] | 20% | 4% | 10% |
Factum[29] | 19–30 Apr 2024 | 900 | 43% | 30% | 10% | 6% | — | — | 2% | 4%[e] | — | 5% | 13% |
Nómade[30] | 25–29 Apr 2024 | 1,076 | 41.5% | 32.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | — | — | 2.7% | 14.3% | 0.5% | 9.2% |
Equipos Consultores[31] | 11–28 Apr 2024 | 1,402 | 43% | 29% | 7% | 3% | — | — | — | 2% | 12% | 4% | 14% |
UPC[32] | 19–23 Apr 2024 | 500 | 45% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 1% | — | 1% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 16% |
Cifra[33] | 11–22 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 45% | 32% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 12% | 13% | ||
Nómade[34] | 10–14 Apr 2024 | 1,042 | 46.5% | 32.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | — | — | 0.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | — | 13.6% |
Opción Consultores[35] | 1–10 Apr 2024 | 1,231 | 43% | 28% | 8% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 2% | 9% | 6% | 15% |
MPC Consultores[36] | 18–23 Mar 2024 | 900 | 34% | 23% | 7% | 9% | 1% | — | 1% | 3%[c] | 19% | 3% | 11% |
Cifra[37] | 7–20 Mar 2024 | 1,198 | 46% | 32% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 11% | 14% | ||
Factum[38] | 20 Feb–2 Mar 2024 | 900 | 43% | 29% | 8% | 7% | — | — | 3% | 6% | — | 4% | 14% |
Opción Consultores[39] | 14–28 Feb 2024 | 800 | 41% | 31% | 6% | 3% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 10% | 7% | 10% |
Equipos Consultores[31] | 15–27 Feb 2024 | 1,400 | 42% | 27% | 7% | 4% | — | — | — | 2%[d] | 13% | 5% | 15% |
Cifra[40] | 1–17 Feb 2024 | 1,001 | 47% | 31% | 6% | 2% | — | 2%[f] | 1% | 11% | 16% | ||
MPC Consultores[41] | 29 Jan–2 Feb 2024 | 960 | 34% | 22% | 6% | 10% | 1% | — | 2% | 3%[c] | 19% | 3% | 12% |
Nómade[42] | 22 Jan–2 Feb 2024 | 839 | 40.6% | 29.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | — | — | 3.3%[g] | 17.8% | 0.8% | 10.9% |
MPC Consultores[43] | 15–20 Dec 2023 | 900 | 33% | 20% | 7% | 8% | — | — | — | 4% | 24% | 4% | 13% |
Factum[44] | 17–30 Nov 2023 | 900 | 42% | 26% | 9% | 7% | — | — | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 16% |
Equipos Consultores[45] | 16–29 Nov 2023 | 1,204 | 45% | 29% | 7% | 2% | — | — | — | 2% | 12% | 3% | 16% |
Opción Consultores[46] | 4–20 Nov 2023 | 800 | 44% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 1% | — | 3% | — | 7% | 6% | 14% |
UPC[47][48] | 10–14 Nov 2023 | 500 | 45% | 27% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 2%[f] | 2% | 7% | 8% | 18% | |
Nómade[49] | 6–11 Nov 2023 | 975 | 41.6% | 23.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | — | — | 1.1% | 1.8% | 23.3% | 1.2% | 18.6% |
Cifra[50] | 17 Oct–3 Nov 2023 | 1,002 | 44% | 31% | 6% | 2% | — | 1%[f] | 1% | 15% | 13% | ||
Equipos Consultores[51] | 5–18 Oct 2023 | 1,204 | 40% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 1% | — | — | 1% | 17% | 6% | 11% |
UPC[52] | 15–19 Sep 2023 | 400 | 45% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 16% |
Factum[53] | 21 Aug–6 Sep 2023 | 900 | 41% | 28% | 7% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 13% |
Cifra[54] | 17–31 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 42% | 30% | 4% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 21% | 12% | ||
Equipos Consultores[55] | 10–23 Aug 2023 | 1,204 | 43% | 26% | 7% | 3% | 1% | — | 1% | 1%[d] | 15% | 3% | 17% |
Nómade[56] | 19–23 Jul 2023 | 902 | 40.6% | 25.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | — | — | 1.1% | 0.9% | 22.3% | 1.7% | 14.7% |
Cifra[57] | 15 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1,009 | 44% | 27% | 6% | 2% | — | 2%[f] | 1% | 18% | 17% | ||
Factum[58] | 21–28 Jun 2023 | 900 | 40% | 26% | 9% | 7% | — | — | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 14% |
Equipos Consultores[59] | 2–16 Jun 2023 | 1,207 | 43% | 28% | 7% | 2% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 15% |
UPC[60] | 2–6 Jun 2023 | 400 | 45% | 29% | 5% | 4% | — | — | 1% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 16% |
Opción Consultores[61] | 15–22 May 2023 | 849 | 42% | 30% | 4% | 4% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 11% | 6% | 12% |
Factum[62] | 24 Apr–11 May 2023 | 900 | 41% | 23% | 8% | 11% | — | — | 4% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 18% |
Cifra[63] | 20 Apr–3 May 2023 | 987 | 41% | 30% | 3% | 4% | — | 2%[f] | 1% | 19% | 11% | ||
Equipos Consultores[64] | 11–24 Apr 2023 | 1,204 | 42% | 28% | 5% | 2% | — | — | 1% | — | 15% | 7% | 14% |
Nómade[65] | 3–17 Apr 2023 | 803 | 43.7% | 29.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | — | — | 2.1% | 0.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 14.7% |
Latinobarómetro[66] | 2–28 Mar 2023 | 1,200 | 34.9% | 24.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 18.4% | 16.3% | 10% |
Cifra[67] | 15–27 Feb 2023 | 1,007 | 43% | 30% | 3% | 2% | — | 2%[f] | 1% | 19% | 13% | ||
Factum[68] | 11–20 Feb 2023 | 1,000 | 41% | 26% | 6% | 9% | — | — | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 15% |
Equipos Consultores[69] | Feb 2023 | – | 43% | 24% | 9% | 3% | — | 1%[f] | 1% | 1% | n/a | n/a | 19% |
Nómade[70] | 3–17 Jan 2023 | 828 | 43.1% | 27.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3%[h] | 14.1% | 1.3% | 15.3% |
Equipos Consultores[71] | Dec 2022 | – | 44% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — | — | 1% | 16% | 5% | 21% |
Opción Consultores[72] | 2–10 Nov 2022 | – | 40% | 28% | 6% | 5% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 12% | 6% | 12% |
Cifra[73] | 20–31 Oct 2022 | 810 | 43% | 31% | 4% | 2% | — | 1%[f] | 1% | 18% | 12% | ||
Factum[74] | 4–16 Oct 2022 | 800 | 41% | 27% | 8% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 14% |
Equipos Consultores[75] | 24 Jul–8 Oct 2022 | 1,900 | 38% | 28% | 5% | 3% | 1% | — | 1% | 2% | 20% | 5% | 10% |
Factum[76] | 3–13 Jun 2022 | 900 | 39% | 28% | 8% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 11% |
Equipos Consultores[77] | 23 Apr–7 May 2022 | 1,195 | 35% | 25% | 5% | 2% | — | — | — | 1% | 25% | 7% | 10% |
Factum[78] | 6–15 Nov 2021 | 900 | 39% | 30% | 8% | 9% | — | 1% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 9% |
Equipos Consultores[79] | Jul–Sep 2021 | 1,500 | 35% | 30% | 4% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 1% | 19% | 7% | 5% |
Opción Consultores[80] | 13–20 May 2021 | 824 | 34% | 33% | 5% | 5% | 1% | — | 1% | 2% | 11% | 8% | 1% |
2019 election, 1st round | 27 October 2019 | – | 39.0% | 28.6% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | — | 3.6% | 10.4% |
Party polling with hypothetical presidential candidates
[edit]Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | PC | CA | PERI | PI | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orsi | Cosse | Delgado | Raffo | ||||||||
Equipos Consultores[81] | 15–27 Feb 2024 | 1,400 | 44% | — | 26% | — | 5% | 9% | — | 2% | 18% |
45% | — | — | 22% | 8% | 10% | — | 3% | 23% | |||
— | 37% | 30% | — | 6% | 10% | — | 2% | 7% | |||
— | 37% | — | 21% | 10% | 11% | — | 5% | 16% | |||
Opción Consultores[39] | 14–28 Feb 2024 | 800 | 40% | — | 33% | — | 4% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
— | 39% | 35% | — | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 4% | |||
Equipos Consultores[82] | 16–29 Nov 2023 | 1,204 | 47% | — | 29% | — | 5% | 7% | — | 3% | 18% |
46% | — | — | 24% | 8% | 8% | — | 4% | 22% | |||
— | 42% | 31% | — | 7% | 7% | — | 4% | 11% | |||
— | 42% | — | 24% | 10% | 7% | — | 5% | 18% | |||
Opción Consultores[83] | 4–20 Nov 2023 | 800 | 45% | — | 27% | — | 8% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 18% |
— | 39% | 31% | — | 6% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 8% | |||
Equipos Consultores[84] | 2–16 Jun 2023 | 1,207 | 46% | — | 26% | — | 11% | 5% | — | 4% | 20% |
46% | — | — | 20% | 13% | 7% | — | 4% | 26% | |||
— | 39% | 25% | — | 13% | 6% | — | 6% | 14% | |||
— | 41% | — | 21% | 16% | 7% | — | 5% | 20% | |||
Opción Consultores[85] | 23 May–1 Jun 2022 | 800 | 40% | — | 22% | — | 12% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 18% |
— | 39% | 23% | — | 13% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 16% |
Presidential polling with hypothetical candidates
[edit]Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | PC | CA | Other | Und. | Blank/ Abs. | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orsi | Cosse | Bergara | Other FA | Delgado | Raffo | Argimón | Other PN | Bordaberry | Other PC | Manini | Other CA | ||||||
Presidential primaries | 30 Jun 2024 | – | 25.1% | 15.9% | — | 1.3% | 24.9% | 6.4% | — | 2.1% | — | 10.5%[i] | 1.8% | — | 1.8% | — | 0.6% |
Cifra[86] | 1–17 Feb 2024 | 1,001 | 24% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 18% | 6% | — | 2%[j] | — | 1%[k] | 2% | — | 2%[l] | 30% | — |
Cifra[87] | 17 Oct–3 Nov 2023 | 1,002 | 20% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4%[m] | — | 1%[k] | 3% | — | 1%[l] | 38% | — |
Cifra[88] | 17–31 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 23% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | — | 3% | — | 1%[l] | 37% | — |
Cifra[89] | 15 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1,009 | 20% | 12% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | — | 2% | — | 1%[l] | 35% | — |
Cifra[90] | 20 Apr–3 May 2023 | 987 | 22% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | — | 4% | — | 2%[l] | 34% | — |
Nómade[65] | 3–17 Apr 2023 | 803 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 0.7% | 0.7%[n] | 5.7% | 0.6% | — | 5.3%[o] | 0.9% | — | 4.0% | — | 4.5% | 45.9% | 3.3% |
Cifra[91] | 4–14 Aug 2022 | 704 | 17.5% | 8.9% | — | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 7.7%[p] | 3.0% | — | 2.8% | — | 2.8%[l] | 33.8% | — |
Opción Consultores[85] | 23 May–1 Jun 2022 | 800 | 9% | 6% | [q] | 8% | 5% | [r] | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1%[l] | 62% | — |
Second round
[edit]Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | Und. | Blank/ Abs. |
Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orsi | Cosse | Delgado | Raffo | ||||||
UPC[5] | 27–30 Sep 2024 | 500 | 50% | — | 40% | — | 10% | 10% | |
UPC[10] | 29 Aug–1 Sep 2024 | 500 | 49% | — | 39% | — | 12% | 10 | |
Opción Consultores[13] | 15–27 Aug 2024 | 1,200 | 48% | — | 41% | — | 4% | 7% | 7% |
Factum[92] | 28 Jul–8 Aug 2024 | 900 | 50% | — | 46% | — | — | 4% | 4% |
Nómade[16] | 29 Jul–4 Aug 2024 | 1,730 | 51.5% | — | 34.2% | — | 7.4% | 6.9% | 17.3% |
Opción Consultores[19] | 15–25 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 50% | — | 38% | — | 6% | 7% | 12% |
MPC Consultores[20] | 10–14 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 36% | — | 39% | — | 20% | 5% | 3% |
MPC Consultores[28] | 20–25 May 2024 | 900 | 43–48%[s] | 47–52%[t] | — | 3–5% | 2% | ||
Cifra[93] | 16–28 May 2024 | 1,503 | 50% | — | 39% | — | 11% | — | 11% |
— | 45% | 45% | — | 10% | — | Tie | |||
Nómade[34] | 10–14 Apr 2024 | 1,042 | 53.4% | — | 46.6% | — | — | — | 7% |
— | 48.7% | 51.3% | — | — | — | 17% | |||
Equipos Consultores[81] | 15–27 Feb 2024 | 1,400 | 48% | — | 41% | — | 7% | 4% | 7% |
52% | — | — | 35% | 8% | 5% | 17% | |||
— | 42% | 44% | — | 8% | 6% | 2% | |||
— | 42% | — | 39% | 9% | 10% | 3% |
- Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g 1% for Sovereign Identity Party
- ^ a b 1% for Popular Unity and 1% for Sovereign Identity Party
- ^ a b c d 1% for Constitutional Environmentalist Party and 1% for Sovereign Identity Party
- ^ a b c 1% for Popular Unity
- ^ 2% for Popular Unity
- ^ a b c d e f g h Unspecified or other Multicolor parties
- ^ 1.1% for Constitutional Environmentalist Party
- ^ 0.3% for Green Animalist Party
- ^ 4.1% for Andrés Ojeda Spitz
- ^ 1% for Jorge Gandini and 1% for Juan Sartori
- ^ a b 1% for Robert Silva
- ^ a b c d e f g A different Multicolor candidate
- ^ 1% for Jorge Gandini
- ^ 0.7% for Óscar Andrade
- ^ 5.3% of respondents named incumbent president Luis Lacalle Pou, who is ineligible for re-election
- ^ 7.7% of respondents named incumbent president Luis Lacalle Pou, who is ineligible for re-election
- ^ included with other FA
- ^ included with other FN
- ^ Generic FA candidate
- ^ Generic Multicolor candidate
References
[edit]- ^ "Uruguay facing general elections in October". www.radiohc.cu. Retrieved 14 September 2024.
- ^ "Uruguay's leftist coalition eyeing return to power in October". BNamericas.com. Retrieved 14 September 2024.
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ a b "03/10/2024 – Yamandú Orsi derrotaría por diez puntos a Álvaro Delgado en un eventual balotaje, según encuesta de la Usina" (in Spanish). 4 October 2024.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto en setiembre: el Frente Amplio registra 43%, y la suma de los partidos de la Coalición 40%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Septiembre 2024". 16 September 2024.
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ a b "05/09/2024 – El FA alcanzaría 47% de los votos y la coalición oficialista 40%, según encuesta de la Usina" (in Spanish). 5 September 2024.
- ^ "En agosto 41% votaría al Frente Amplio y 38% a los partidos de la Coalición Multicolor" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "Intención de Voto: Primera Vuelta y Balotaje – Agosto 2024".
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Agosto 2024". 12 August 2024.
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ a b "Cae la intención de voto al Partido Nacional" (in Spanish). 8 August 2024.
- ^ "Intención de voto en julio: 43% votaría al Frente Amplio y 37% a los partidos de la Coalición Multicolor" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "Intención de Voto: Primera Vuelta y Balotaje – Julio 2024".
- ^ a b "INVESTIGACIÓN NACIONAL MPC JULIO 2024". 14 July 2024.
- ^ "19/07/2024 – Elecciones nacionales: FA tiene 48% de intención de voto y la coalición multicolor 38%, según la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish). 29 July 2024.
- ^ "Encuesta de Nómade: Orsi crece en interna del FA entre los que probablemente vayan a votar" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Simpatía política por partido en junio: FA 44%, Partidos de la coalición 39%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias – Mayo 2024".
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "En las internas, Yamandú Orsi recoge 55% de las adhesiones del FA y Carolina Cosse 41%; Álvaro Delgado reúne tres de cada cuatro votos del Partido Nacional" (in Spanish). 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b "Investigación Nacional MPC Mayo 2024". 28 May 2024.
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ "Intención de voto: crecen los apoyos partidarios, y la coalición supera al Frente Amplio" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 27%, PC 7%, CA 4%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "02/05/2024 – FA tiene 45% de intención de voto y partidos de la coalición suman 39%, según la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish). 20 May 2024.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "Uruguay: una encuesta proyecta un triunfo por 7 puntos de la oposición en segunda vuelta" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Abril 2024". April 2024.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ a b "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Febrero 2024". 5 February 2024.
- ^ "Se fortalecen las precandidaturas con mayor adhesión" (in Spanish). 14 March 2024.
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Diciembre 2023". 26 December 2023.
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 45%, PN 29%, PC 7%, CA 2%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto dice la última encuesta de Opción". El País. 21 December 2023.
- ^ "Según Usina de Percepción Ciudadana el Frente Amplio llega a 45% de intención de voto y la coalición suma 37%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Elecciones 2024: Frente Amplio lidera preferencias con el 45 % según encuesta de la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
- ^ "El 17,5% de quienes fueron encuestados no sabe a qué partido votaría" (in Spanish). 4 December 2023.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿QUÉ VOTARÍAN LOS URUGUAYOS SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY?" (in Spanish).
- ^ "45% votaría al Frente Amplio y 29% al Partido Nacional en las elecciones de 2024, según la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 4º Bimestre 2023" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto revela una nueva encuesta de Equipos" (in Spanish). 15 September 2023.
- ^ "Intención de voto: el Frente Amplio mantiene ventaja sobre la coalición de gobierno" (in Spanish). 8 August 2023.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 3er Bimestre 2023" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿A qué partido votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto concluyó una nueva encuesta de Equipos" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Elecciones 2024: el 45% votaría al Frente Amplio y el 29% al Partido Nacional" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿A qué partido votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran este domingo?". El Observador.
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 2º Bimestre" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto: "empate técnico" entre coalición y Frente Amplio, según la última encuesta de Cifra" (in Spanish). 3 May 2023.
- ^ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 28%, PC 5%, CA 2%, PI 1%" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "La intención de voto al Frente Amplio supera a la de la coalición" (in Spanish). 24 April 2023.
- ^ "Latinobarómetro 2023. Uruguay. Estudio nº LAT-2023 v1_0" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "La coalición de gobierno suma 45% de intención de voto y el Frente Amplio 41%, según la última encuesta de Factum" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta Equipos: FA 43%, Partido Nacional 24%, Partido Colorado 9%, Cabildo Abierto 3%" (in Spanish). 14 March 2023.
- ^ "Yamandú Orsi y Álvaro Delgado lideran la intención de voto dentro de sus partidos" (in Spanish). 20 March 2023.
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos coloca al FA a la cabeza de la preferencia electoral, con 44 %" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Opción: el FA reúne 40% de la intención de voto, mientras que los blancos llegan a 28%". Montevideo Portal.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – Octubre 2022" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos Consultores: FA 38%, PN 28%, PC 5%, CA 3%, 1% PI y 1% PERI" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto: FA 39%; PN 28%; CA y PC 8% cada uno" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? La última encuesta de Equipos Consultores" (in Spanish). 17 May 2022.
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido - Noviembre 2021" (in Spanish).
- ^ "A dos años de las elecciones de 2019: ¿qué votarían hoy los uruguayos?". subrayado.com.uy (in Spanish). 27 October 2021. Retrieved 14 December 2021.
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias - Mayo 2021". 6 July 2021.
- ^ a b "Encuesta de Equipos compara escenarios para las elecciones de octubre y noviembre según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
- ^ "El Frente Amplio lidera otra encuesta de intención de voto" (in Spanish). 26 December 2023.
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias – Diciembre 2023" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos Consultores compara escenarios para las elecciones según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "Preferencias presidenciales y escenarios de intención de voto" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LAS INTERNAS AL ARRANQUE FORMAL DE LA CAMPAÑA" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "PRESIDENTE PREFERIDO PARA EL PROXIMO PERIODO" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Portal FACTUM | Uruguay". portal.factum.uy.
- ^ "Yamandú Orsi tendría ventaja en un eventual balotaje, según una encuesta de Cifra". 24 June 2024.